NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
130–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31372933130
IND33334729142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 26 11 8
Damian Lillard S 36 23 2 5
Khris Middleton S 32 19 6 7
Brook Lopez S 28 16 5 1
MarJon Beauchamp 21 12 3 1
Bobby Portis 20 9 6 1
Malik Beasley S 23 8 1 1
Cameron Payne 10 7 1 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 14 7 2 2
Pat Connaughton 14 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 31 2 12
Bennedict Mathurin 25 16 1 3
Obi Toppin 27 15 8 4
Bruce Brown S 28 15 5 2
Myles Turner S 30 15 7 2
Jalen Smith S 19 13 7 3
Buddy Hield 13 10 0 0
Isaiah Jackson 18 9 4 3
Aaron Nesmith S 22 9 4 2
T.J. McConnell 19 6 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bruce Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Bruce Brown makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
5 Bruce Brown IND
9%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
8 Jalen Smith IND
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 12.3 7.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.7 4.4 6.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.8 4.1 12.4
4 Khris Middleton MIL 20.3 4.9 6.2
5 Myles Turner IND 18.0 6.2 1.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.7 7.0 1.6
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.2 4.3 1.8
8 Brook Lopez MIL 14.9 5.1 1.2
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.7 4.0 2.7
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.6 4.4 1.7
11 Malik Beasley MIL 11.0 3.9 1.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.3 4.9 1.6
13 Bruce Brown IND 9.6 4.3 2.4
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 3.1 5.1
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.6 5.1 1.0
16 Jalen Smith IND 8.5 4.4 0.9
17 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.2 2.1 3.9
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.8 3.5 1.6
19 Cameron Payne MIL 5.5 1.4 2.1
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 2.3 1.1
21 Jordan Nwora IND 4.5 1.9 0.9
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.2 2.2 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.6 0.9
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.7 1.0 0.3
25 Ben Sheppard IND 2.7 0.9 0.6
26 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.3 1.1 1.1
27 James Johnson IND 2.2 0.9 0.9
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.6 0.8 0.4
29 Robin Lopez MIL 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.