NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
101–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31242026101
CLE34333439140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 23 16 2 3
Mike Muscala 21 12 4 3
Corey Kispert 20 12 1 0
Daniel Gafford S 20 12 5 1
Landry Shamet 15 9 3 2
Tyus Jones S 21 9 2 2
Jordan Poole S 23 8 3 2
Deni Avdija S 21 7 6 4
Jared Butler 9 5 1 1
Bilal Coulibaly 33 5 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus S 28 24 4 3
Donovan Mitchell S 24 22 3 4
Caris LeVert 23 21 5 5
Jarrett Allen S 29 17 19 7
Georges Niang 28 15 8 1
Sam Merrill 29 11 5 6
Isaac Okoro S 20 9 2 3
Craig Porter Jr. 15 8 3 3
Tristan Thompson 19 7 9 4
Damian Jones 6 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
4 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
6 Max Strus CLE
9%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.2 5.9 7.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.4 6.5 4.4
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.6 12.1 4.6
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.3 3.1 4.9
5 Caris LeVert CLE 17.6 3.7 4.6
6 Tyus Jones WSH 16.2 3.7 6.3
7 Max Strus CLE 14.6 4.6 4.5
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.8 3.9 3.2
9 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.3 8.7 1.6
10 Deni Avdija WSH 11.7 6.4 3.5
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 2.2 1.6
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.1 3.7 1.8
13 Dean Wade CLE 9.1 5.2 1.5
14 Georges Niang CLE 8.5 2.9 1.5
15 Sam Merrill CLE 8.3 2.1 1.5
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.8 3.8 4.2
17 Landry Shamet WSH 7.0 1.5 1.4
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.9 2.3 3.8
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.4 4.5 1.2
20 Delon Wright WSH 5.3 2.0 3.0
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.9 3.1 1.0
22 Danilo Gallinari WSH 4.2 2.1 0.6
23 Jared Butler WSH 3.9 0.8 1.9
24 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.0 0.9 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.8 0.4
26 Damian Jones CLE 1.8 0.9 0.4
27 Johnny Davis WSH 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.