NBA games

CHA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
111–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA25203036111
SAC21292826104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SAC
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 36 34 3 6
Miles Bridges S 40 27 5 3
P.J. Washington 29 17 4 4
Cody Martin S 33 10 2 2
Nick Richards S 26 7 10 1
Nick Smith Jr. 14 6 0 1
Bryce McGowens S 21 4 2 2
Ish Smith 18 4 6 4
JT Thor 6 2 2 0
Nate Mensah 16 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 30 5 6
Domantas Sabonis S 35 23 19 4
Chris Duarte S 30 12 7 4
Keegan Murray S 37 10 3 2
Trey Lyles 17 9 3 1
Malik Monk 20 6 3 2
Kevin Huerter 12 4 2 0
Davion Mitchell 14 4 1 0
Alex Len 13 3 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 24 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Duarte · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Chris Duarte makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
4 Nick Richards CHA
9%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Ish Smith CHA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
10 De'Aaron Fox SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.3 4.8 6.6
2 Terry Rozier CHA 24.3 4.1 7.9
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.0 12.9 9.0
4 Miles Bridges CHA 20.5 7.0 3.8
5 Keegan Murray SAC 17.3 4.8 2.0
6 Brandon Miller CHA 16.6 3.6 2.6
7 Malik Monk SAC 15.6 3.0 6.5
8 P.J. Washington CHA 12.4 4.9 2.2
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.1 2.8 1.4
10 Nick Richards CHA 10.5 8.3 1.2
11 Bryce McGowens CHA 7.9 2.6 1.3
12 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.7 2.0 1.2
13 Cody Martin CHA 7.6 3.0 2.0
14 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.2 2.6 2.0
15 Trey Lyles SAC 6.5 4.6 1.5
16 Ish Smith CHA 6.1 2.0 4.0
17 Keon Ellis SAC 5.4 2.1 2.1
18 James Bouknight CHA 4.3 1.5 0.7
19 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.9 2.7 1.0
20 JaVale McGee SAC 3.8 2.3 0.9
21 Chris Duarte SAC 3.6 1.9 1.0
22 Alex Len SAC 3.4 4.2 1.0
23 JT Thor CHA 3.2 2.0 0.5
24 Nate Mensah CHA 3.1 3.0 0.5
25 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.0 1.5 1.1
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 1.2 0.7
27 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.5 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.