NBA games

ORL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
115–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL28272634115
GS30253234121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home GS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 34 27 12 6
Franz Wagner S 37 25 6 3
Goga Bitadze S 26 13 7 1
Moritz Wagner 16 12 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 31 10 2 3
Cole Anthony 26 8 4 2
Gary Harris 29 8 2 2
Caleb Houstan 8 6 1 0
Wendell Carter Jr. 20 6 2 1
Anthony Black S 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 36 2 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 19 6 4
Klay Thompson S 25 15 3 2
Chris Paul S 30 12 2 4
Andrew Wiggins 21 10 3 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 24 10 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 28 10 4 2
Kevon Looney 17 5 5 2
Dario Saric 14 2 3 1
Gary Payton II 11 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Klay Thompson GS
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Chris Paul GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
45%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 7.7 5.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.8 6.7 5.1
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.5 3.8 5.0
4 Klay Thompson GS 16.5 3.6 2.5
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.7 5.6 2.1
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.2 6.6 4.6
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.7 4.3 1.9
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.3 3.2 2.3
9 Cole Anthony ORL 12.3 3.9 3.4
10 Chris Paul GS 10.8 3.7 6.8
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.6 6.0 1.9
12 Draymond Green GS 9.6 5.0 4.9
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.8 6.6 1.3
14 Dario Saric GS 8.6 4.4 1.5
15 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.1 4.1 1.2
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.1 6.2 1.3
17 Gary Harris ORL 7.5 1.9 1.8
18 Anthony Black ORL 7.4 3.6 2.3
19 Moses Moody GS 5.8 2.4 0.7
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.3 1.0 1.1
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.2 2.1 0.8
22 Kevon Looney GS 5.2 5.1 1.9
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 2.9 0.9
24 Lester Quinones GS 3.2 1.0 0.8
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.5 1.1 0.5
27 Cory Joseph GS 2.3 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.