NBA games

BOS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
123–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29322537123
OKC31274029127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home OKC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 34 10 2
Jayson Tatum S 38 30 13 8
Derrick White S 29 19 5 6
Jaylen Brown S 38 15 6 3
Al Horford 20 7 2 3
Jrue Holiday S 31 7 5 7
Sam Hauser 10 6 1 0
Payton Pritchard 25 5 3 4
Luke Kornet 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 36 6 7
Josh Giddey S 27 23 8 6
Jalen Williams S 31 16 1 1
Chet Holmgren S 33 14 3 7
Isaiah Joe 13 10 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 37 9 8 1
Jaylin Williams 8 5 2 1
Cason Wallace 17 5 1 3
Aaron Wiggins 13 4 1 1
Vasilije Micic 11 3 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
21%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
12%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.0 5.8 6.7
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.5 6.9 5.1
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 5.8 5.2
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.4 7.5 2.1
5 Derrick White BOS 19.9 4.5 5.8
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.8 7.7 2.8
7 Jalen Williams OKC 18.7 4.0 4.7
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.4 5.5 4.2
9 Josh Giddey OKC 13.0 6.6 4.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.3 4.1 1.6
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.2 3.2 3.1
12 Al Horford BOS 8.5 7.0 2.9
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 2.4 1.2
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.9 3.4 1.5
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.3 4.0 0.9
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.2 2.3 1.7
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.2 4.8 0.8
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.1 2.3 1.6
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.5 2.6 0.9
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.4 2.8 0.8
21 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.1 1.4 2.6
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.4 2.3 0.7
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.4 2.9 1.2
24 Davis Bertans OKC 3.2 1.0 0.6
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.0 1.7 0.7
26 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.9 1.2 0.7
27 Tre Mann OKC 2.5 1.1 1.0
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.