NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
98–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2317283098
MEM20273326106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 20 7 1
Keldon Johnson 31 19 6 4
Julian Champagnie S 22 12 4 2
Jeremy Sochan S 28 12 2 1
Devin Vassell S 34 11 2 3
Blake Wesley 21 10 1 1
Dominick Barlow 14 4 7 2
Doug McDermott 16 3 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 2 3 0 0
Tre Jones 25 2 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 26 5 10
Desmond Bane S 34 24 3 2
Santi Aldama 28 13 11 0
Luke Kennard 21 12 5 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 10 7 1
Vince Williams Jr. 22 8 5 2
Marcus Smart S 30 5 2 3
Bismack Biyombo S 28 4 8 1
Derrick Rose 9 4 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes two point shot (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
16%
2 Ja Morant MEM
14%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
6 Marcus Smart MEM
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
18%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 28.1 6.0 8.7
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.0 11.5 4.0
3 Desmond Bane MEM 25.4 5.2 6.0
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.1 5.7 2.4
5 Keldon Johnson SA 21.4 6.1 4.1
6 Devin Vassell SA 20.3 4.2 3.9
7 Marcus Smart MEM 14.2 3.2 4.4
8 Malaki Branham SA 13.5 3.9 3.3
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 6.3 4.0
10 Mamadi Diakite SA 11.3 5.0 1.0
11 Derrick Rose MEM 9.7 2.9 4.2
12 Tre Jones SA 9.4 3.1 4.5
13 Luke Kennard MEM 8.7 2.8 2.1
14 David Roddy MEM 8.3 3.2 1.9
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 6.4 2.4
16 Santi Aldama MEM 7.9 4.0 1.4
17 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.8 3.0 2.0
18 Cedi Osman SA 6.4 2.4 2.1
19 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.4 5.8 1.3
20 John Konchar MEM 5.8 4.5 1.4
21 Julian Champagnie SA 5.6 2.3 0.9
22 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.6 4.5 1.3
23 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.4 1.0
24 Devonte' Graham SA 4.5 1.8 1.7
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.0 2.5 1.3
26 Dominick Barlow SA 3.2 1.8 0.6
27 Blake Wesley SA 3.2 1.6 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.