NBA games

CHI @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
97–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI1824302597
PHI43302512110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 30 16 4 3
Ayo Dosunmu 32 15 3 0
Coby White S 29 14 4 3
Andre Drummond S 28 11 17 0
Jevon Carter 23 9 1 1
Adama Sanogo 9 8 6 0
Alex Caruso S 21 8 2 2
Julian Phillips 17 7 0 0
Dalen Terry 21 6 8 7
Patrick Williams S 11 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 31 15 10
Tyrese Maxey S 29 21 1 5
Tobias Harris S 30 20 8 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 16 3 3
Nicolas Batum S 22 6 3 2
Danuel House Jr. 15 5 0 1
Jaden Springer 21 4 2 2
Patrick Beverley 14 3 1 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 11 2 2 0
Paul Reed 13 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Andre Drummond CHI
8%
8 Paul Reed PHI
8%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.6 11.3 8.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.2 3.4 6.3
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.8 4.8 5.7
4 Coby White CHI 22.3 5.6 5.8
5 Tobias Harris PHI 18.8 6.1 3.8
6 Patrick Williams CHI 13.6 3.9 2.0
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.9 4.2 2.1
8 Alex Caruso CHI 11.3 4.0 2.7
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.9 3.5 1.4
10 Andre Drummond CHI 8.7 10.2 0.9
11 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.8 2.9 1.3
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.8 3.4 2.4
13 Paul Reed PHI 6.2 4.6 1.7
14 Torrey Craig CHI 6.1 3.2 0.8
15 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.7 2.2 1.6
16 Jevon Carter CHI 5.3 1.5 1.2
17 Mo Bamba PHI 4.4 3.2 0.9
18 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.0 1.0
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.5 1.7 0.6
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.2 1.1 0.8
21 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.1 2.4 0.4
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.6 1.4 0.5
23 KJ Martin PHI 2.6 1.3 0.7
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.3 1.2 0.6
25 Jaden Springer PHI 2.3 0.9 0.6
26 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 1.7 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.