NBA games

MIA @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA35232719104
LAC23363626121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 21 15 4
Kevin Love 23 17 4 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 38 15 4 2
Duncan Robinson 26 15 1 2
Tyler Herro S 35 12 6 6
Jamal Cain S 35 9 3 1
Kyle Lowry S 24 8 1 3
Cole Swider 3 3 0 0
Nikola Jovic 3 3 0 1
Orlando Robinson 3 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 34 24 6 5
Paul George S 34 23 3 2
Norman Powell 33 22 2 2
James Harden S 31 15 4 10
Terance Mann S 18 12 3 0
Russell Westbrook 18 8 4 3
Ivica Zubac S 29 6 12 1
Daniel Theis 16 6 1 0
Amir Coffey 19 5 1 2
Brandon Boston 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Lowry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Kyle Lowry makes 23-foot jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Paul George LAC
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
6 R.J. Hampton MIA
8%
7 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
8 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
44%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.0 5.6 3.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 5.6 5.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.6 10.1 4.5
4 Paul George LAC 21.6 5.0 4.1
5 James Harden LAC 21.3 5.6 9.5
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.7 4.6 3.2
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.6 3.5 3.9
8 Norman Powell LAC 14.7 3.4 1.5
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.8 10.4 1.8
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.4 6.3 4.6
11 Kevin Love MIA 10.4 6.5 2.5
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 9.5 2.8 3.0
13 Terance Mann LAC 7.3 2.8 1.8
14 Cole Swider MIA 6.4 1.2 0.9
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.4 2.6 0.8
16 Amir Coffey LAC 6.4 2.3 1.2
17 Jamal Cain MIA 6.1 2.5 0.8
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.9 3.5 1.8
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.5 3.7 1.2
20 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.4 4.5 1.2
21 R.J. Hampton MIA 4.8 1.5 1.9
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.7 1.5 0.9
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.6 1.0 0.5
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
25 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.3 2.1 0.7
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.5 0.4
27 Bones Hyland LAC 3.2 0.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.