NBA games

DAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
90–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2629241190
UTAH37253134127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home UTAH
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 19 6 14
Jaden Hardy 21 17 3 1
Kyrie Irving S 32 14 9 4
Dereck Lively II S 25 10 6 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 6 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 6 2 0
Brandon Williams 7 4 1 1
Dante Exum S 12 4 1 3
Grant Williams 18 4 0 1
Dwight Powell 10 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio S 29 24 6 2
Jordan Clarkson 28 20 10 11
Lauri Markkanen S 25 17 4 1
John Collins S 18 15 5 1
Keyonte George 29 14 3 3
Walker Kessler 27 11 10 0
Collin Sexton S 19 8 3 6
Kelly Olynyk 19 7 5 6
Kris Dunn S 21 7 3 7
Ochai Agbaji 19 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
5 Dante Exum DAL
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
7 John Collins UTAH
8%
8 Jaden Hardy DAL
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
47%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.0 7.3 12.1
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.9 3.7 5.3
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.5 4.1 4.0
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 8.1 2.7
5 Dante Exum DAL 17.4 3.7 4.3
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.1 4.4 2.3
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.8 2.7 4.3
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 15.3 3.3 6.0
9 Keyonte George UTAH 14.9 3.2 5.0
10 John Collins UTAH 13.7 7.4 1.3
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.7 4.0 1.5
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.8 7.9 1.3
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 10.8 5.3 6.4
14 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.6 3.7 1.5
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.2 8.0 1.3
16 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.3 3.1 1.4
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 8.6 3.6 5.6
18 Josh Green DAL 7.8 2.8 2.8
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.5 2.4 1.5
20 Grant Williams DAL 7.4 4.2 1.7
21 Brandon Williams DAL 5.6 1.7 1.0
22 Dwight Powell DAL 5.4 4.0 1.1
23 Seth Curry DAL 5.4 1.8 0.9
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.9 6.0 0.8
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 2.1 0.8
26 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.2 3.4 0.6
27 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.1 2.1 0.5
28 Markieff Morris DAL 3.0 1.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.