NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
88–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2918142788
PHX20353123109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 34 17 3 6
Jerami Grant S 25 15 1 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 21 10 2 5
Jabari Walker 25 10 9 0
Ish Wainright 12 8 1 0
Skylar Mays 17 7 2 3
Shaedon Sharpe 18 6 1 1
Kris Murray 19 6 2 1
Ibou Badji 23 4 5 1
Matisse Thybulle S 29 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 34 21 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 18 7 5
Chimezie Metu S 26 14 5 1
Grayson Allen S 28 12 2 4
Eric Gordon 20 12 3 1
Bol Bol 20 11 9 1
Devin Booker S 31 10 8 6
Keita Bates-Diop 17 3 3 1
Josh Okogie 18 3 2 3
Yuta Watanabe 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
7 Drew Eubanks PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Malcolm Brogdon POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.2 4.1 8.1
2 Jerami Grant POR 22.0 4.2 3.7
3 Scoot Henderson POR 18.2 3.5 5.9
4 Grayson Allen PHX 16.2 4.1 3.0
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.7 4.6 3.3
6 Bradley Beal PHX 15.7 3.6 3.9
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 15.4 11.1 3.7
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.4 3.1 4.8
9 Eric Gordon PHX 11.9 2.5 2.1
10 Jabari Walker POR 9.5 6.1 1.1
11 Toumani Camara POR 8.6 4.6 1.3
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.6 4.7 1.2
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 3.1 1.3
14 Skylar Mays POR 6.3 1.7 2.7
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.8 3.3 3.0
16 Josh Okogie PHX 5.5 3.1 1.4
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.8 3.8 0.7
18 Nassir Little PHX 4.7 2.5 0.9
19 Saben Lee PHX 4.7 1.7 1.6
20 Udoka Azubuike PHX 4.2 3.7 0.6
21 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.9 2.2 0.7
22 Kris Murray POR 3.7 1.9 0.6
23 Ibou Badji POR 3.6 3.9 0.5
24 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.4 1.1 0.4
25 Moses Brown POR 2.8 4.1 0.5
26 Ish Wainright POR 2.2 0.9 0.5
27 Bol Bol PHX 2.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.