NBA games

CHA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
93–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1831172793
DEN24254022111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DEN
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 26 9 5
Brandon Miller S 32 15 5 1
Nick Richards S 30 15 8 1
Bryce McGowens S 23 10 2 3
Ish Smith S 29 10 3 4
P.J. Washington 26 6 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 19 5 3 2
Cody Martin 25 2 3 6
Nate Mensah 12 2 4 0
JT Thor 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 27 25 3 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 22 8 1
Reggie Jackson 17 15 4 4
Nikola Jokic S 28 13 11 6
Aaron Gordon S 25 10 2 0
Christian Braun 24 9 4 2
Peyton Watson 19 8 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 5 3 4
Zeke Nnaji 21 2 3 1
Julian Strawther 13 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
10 Bryce McGowens CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.1 11.4 8.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 5.0 6.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 19.3 6.8 3.6
4 Brandon Miller CHA 16.5 3.6 2.8
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.7 6.4 2.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.5 6.0 1.5
7 P.J. Washington CHA 12.4 4.8 2.4
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.3 3.0 2.2
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.0 2.0 4.2
10 Peyton Watson DEN 9.7 3.9 1.6
11 Nick Richards CHA 9.6 8.0 1.2
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.8 3.0 1.7
13 Cody Martin CHA 7.6 2.8 1.5
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.1 2.2 1.3
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.7 2.3 1.2
16 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.7 1.4 1.0
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.8 1.8 1.7
18 Ish Smith CHA 5.4 1.4 3.6
19 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.9 1.8 2.2
20 James Bouknight CHA 4.2 1.3 0.5
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.9 5.3 0.9
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.8 0.7
23 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.6 0.5
24 Braxton Key DEN 3.0 2.0 0.9
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.2 1.1
26 Nate Mensah CHA 2.4 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.