NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
122–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25312838122
MIL32302625113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 26 9 11
Bennedict Mathurin 36 25 13 0
Isaiah Jackson 20 18 9 1
T.J. McConnell 22 16 4 9
Myles Turner S 28 13 4 0
Obi Toppin 29 11 3 2
Jalen Smith S 12 7 2 0
Aaron Nesmith S 27 4 5 0
Andrew Nembhard S 8 2 0 0
Buddy Hield 21 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 30 18 11
Khris Middleton S 32 21 3 6
Brook Lopez S 38 21 5 1
Damian Lillard S 38 13 7 5
Malik Beasley S 37 12 4 0
Bobby Portis 18 8 5 0
Cameron Payne 12 5 1 2
Pat Connaughton 24 3 2 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Jalen Smith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
5%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.5 11.7 7.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.7 4.2 6.6
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 4.9 12.0
4 Khris Middleton MIL 20.4 5.0 6.2
5 Myles Turner IND 18.9 6.3 1.5
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.2 7.2 1.7
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.7 3.3 1.9
8 Buddy Hield IND 13.3 4.0 3.0
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 4.1 1.6
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.0 3.8 1.5
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.7 5.2 1.3
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.7 2.4 4.2
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 5.4 1.5
14 Jalen Smith IND 8.7 4.6 1.0
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.9 4.5 1.0
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.2 2.9 5.1
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 3.3 1.6
18 Jordan Nwora IND 5.4 2.1 1.1
19 Cameron Payne MIL 5.4 1.1 2.4
20 Jarace Walker IND 3.9 1.9 1.1
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 2.0 1.1
22 Ben Sheppard IND 3.6 1.2 0.8
23 AJ Green MIL 3.1 0.9 0.5
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.8 1.0 0.3
25 Marques Bolden MIL 2.8 3.0 0.6
26 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.4 1.2 1.1
27 James Johnson IND 2.1 0.8 0.9
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.9 0.4
29 Robin Lopez MIL 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.