NBA games

DET @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29262533113
HOU31284730136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home HOU
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alec Burks 23 21 2 2
Jaden Ivey S 26 19 6 3
Bojan Bogdanovic S 27 14 2 2
Jalen Duren S 22 12 14 1
Kevin Knox II S 23 11 3 0
Marcus Sasser 7 9 0 2
Killian Hayes 19 8 1 3
Cade Cunningham S 30 6 1 10
Ausar Thompson 24 5 4 2
James Wiseman 16 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 27 26 4 9
Jalen Green S 27 22 5 1
Tari Eason 24 17 4 1
Jae'Sean Tate S 26 16 3 0
Fred VanVleet S 26 15 1 7
Amen Thompson 28 12 4 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 9 6 1
Cam Whitmore 8 9 4 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 14 7 2 2
Jeff Green 9 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Knox II · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kevin Knox II makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
3 Jalen Green HOU
9%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Jeff Green HOU
8%
8 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
8%
9 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
10 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.8 4.9 7.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.6 10.5 4.7
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.6 4.0 3.2
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 21.4 4.1 8.8
5 Jaden Ivey DET 18.0 5.2 4.1
6 Jalen Green HOU 17.3 4.3 3.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.3 8.4 1.6
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.7 11.2 2.1
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.5 3.8 1.9
10 Tari Eason HOU 13.1 8.1 1.8
11 Killian Hayes DET 10.0 3.7 3.9
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.8 4.2 0.6
13 James Wiseman DET 7.8 5.5 1.1
14 Alec Burks DET 7.6 1.8 0.8
15 Ausar Thompson DET 7.2 4.1 1.5
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.0 2.1 1.5
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.6 2.1 0.6
18 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.4 1.1
19 Kevin Knox II DET 5.3 1.5 0.7
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 3.2 1.2
21 Isaiah Livers DET 4.8 2.3 1.2
22 Amen Thompson HOU 4.5 2.8 1.2
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.1 1.0 0.9
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.6 3.0 0.9
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 2.2 0.5
26 Joe Harris DET 2.5 0.9 0.6
27 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.5 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.