NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
121–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32273230121
TOR41263126124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 29 31 4 4
Donovan Mitchell S 38 26 7 7
Isaac Okoro S 27 16 1 3
Jarrett Allen S 34 16 11 4
Sam Merrill 17 16 3 1
Georges Niang 16 8 4 2
Max Strus S 37 6 6 3
Dean Wade S 21 2 3 0
Tristan Thompson 14 0 3 1
Craig Porter Jr. 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 40 36 5 2
Scottie Barnes S 36 20 6 5
RJ Barrett S 29 19 9 1
Jakob Poeltl S 37 14 11 4
Immanuel Quickley S 28 14 6 3
Dennis Schroder 30 12 3 8
Gary Trent Jr. 26 9 6 2
Chris Boucher 11 0 1 0
Thaddeus Young 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dean Wade · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Dean Wade makes two point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Dean Wade CLE
7%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
28%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.2 5.7 6.8
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.6 5.8 5.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.9 10.0 6.0
4 RJ Barrett TOR 18.2 4.9 2.4
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.8 10.7 4.1
6 Caris LeVert CLE 16.0 3.5 4.4
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.5 2.7 7.0
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.3 2.2 1.9
9 Max Strus CLE 14.0 4.1 4.3
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.5 3.0 2.2
11 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.9 3.6 2.6
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.7 7.8 2.5
13 Dean Wade CLE 9.1 5.2 1.4
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.4 3.4 4.2
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.0 2.5 1.2
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 1.5 1.2
17 Ty Jerome CLE 6.5 2.1 3.7
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.7 2.8 1.1
19 Chris Boucher TOR 5.3 3.1 0.6
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.9 4.9 1.2
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.3 1.6 0.9
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.5 2.0 1.0
23 Gradey Dick TOR 3.3 0.9 0.6
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.2 1.7 0.9
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.6 0.9 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.