NBA games

MIN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN32172928106
NY23383318112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 35 4 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 29 6 3
Rudy Gobert S 38 10 15 1
Jordan McLaughlin 12 9 1 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 8 1 0
Naz Reid 19 5 2 0
Mike Conley S 29 5 2 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 3 0 2
Kyle Anderson 17 2 2 3
Troy Brown Jr. 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 39 9 0
OG Anunoby S 35 17 6 1
Jalen Brunson S 41 16 4 14
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 15 4 2
Quentin Grimes 18 10 3 1
Josh Hart 29 8 11 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 39 7 9 3
Miles McBride 7 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 9 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
9%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.0 4.9 6.9
2 Julius Randle NY 27.7 9.3 4.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.9 4.9 6.1
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.2 10.0 3.4
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.7 3.4 3.2
6 Mike Conley MIN 13.5 2.9 6.3
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.1 4.5 2.0
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY 13.1 3.3 2.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.4 10.8 1.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 3.4 1.5
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.4 8.8 2.3
12 Evan Fournier NY 8.3 2.3 1.1
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 8.2 4.4 1.4
14 Josh Hart NY 7.6 5.2 2.2
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.3 3.6 4.0
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.6 1.8 2.1
17 Quentin Grimes NY 6.0 1.7 0.9
18 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.2 1.8 1.0
19 Shake Milton MIN 4.2 1.0 1.2
20 Miles McBride NY 3.5 1.1 0.8
21 Daishen Nix MIN 2.8 0.7 0.9
22 Taj Gibson NY 2.7 2.4 0.6
23 Jacob Toppin NY 2.5 1.9 0.5
24 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.5 0.9 0.5
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.0 0.8 0.4
27 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 1.2 0.3
28 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 1.6 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.