NBA games

ORL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
107–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24342920107
PHX37302223112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHX
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 28 9 7
Franz Wagner S 39 27 7 6
Wendell Carter Jr. 24 17 5 2
Cole Anthony 18 13 5 0
Goga Bitadze S 22 6 7 1
Moritz Wagner 10 5 4 1
Gary Harris 32 5 2 2
Jalen Suggs S 29 4 4 3
Anthony Black S 22 2 2 0
Caleb Houstan 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 31 5 5
Bradley Beal S 35 25 1 2
Devin Booker S 37 21 4 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 19 13 3
Grayson Allen S 35 10 2 4
Chimezie Metu 17 6 6 0
Udoka Azubuike 8 0 1 0
Eric Gordon 30 0 1 0
Josh Okogie 7 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
20%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.2 5.7 6.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.3 4.2 7.7
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 6.9 5.2
4 Franz Wagner ORL 24.0 6.1 4.9
5 Grayson Allen PHX 15.9 4.4 2.6
6 Bradley Beal PHX 14.5 3.4 3.7
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.4 11.1 3.4
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.2 2.7
9 Eric Gordon PHX 13.0 2.6 2.2
10 Cole Anthony ORL 12.7 3.8 3.9
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.5 6.4 1.5
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.4 4.5 1.1
13 Anthony Black ORL 8.0 3.7 2.6
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.0 4.1 1.4
15 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.0 6.2 1.7
16 Gary Harris ORL 6.6 1.6 1.6
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.1 3.4 2.9
18 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.6 1.1 1.1
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.3 2.3 0.9
20 Saben Lee PHX 5.0 1.8 1.5
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.8 3.6 0.4
22 Josh Okogie PHX 4.8 3.2 1.1
23 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.5 3.6 0.6
24 Udoka Azubuike PHX 4.1 3.5 0.5
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.5 1.5 0.7
26 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.4 2.1 0.6
27 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.1 1.1 0.4
28 Bol Bol PHX 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.