NBA games

SAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
123–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34363122123
MEM2929211392

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MEM
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 21 27 4 5
De'Aaron Fox S 34 24 4 4
Domantas Sabonis S 32 13 21 12
Trey Lyles 19 12 3 0
Harrison Barnes S 20 11 2 0
Keegan Murray S 26 10 3 1
Kevin Huerter 17 9 0 0
Davion Mitchell 14 8 2 4
Chris Duarte S 26 7 6 0
Sasha Vezenkov 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 18 3 1
Ja Morant S 31 17 3 3
Luke Kennard 20 17 3 2
Desmond Bane S 35 17 7 6
Marcus Smart S 31 12 1 2
Santi Aldama 14 5 2 1
Derrick Rose 12 2 0 3
Xavier Tillman 8 2 2 0
David Roddy 11 2 0 1
Vince Williams Jr. 18 0 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Derrick Rose MEM
8%
8 Bismack Biyombo MEM
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 28.7 6.7 8.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.0 4.8 6.6
3 Desmond Bane MEM 24.8 4.7 5.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.7 13.0 8.5
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.6 5.4 2.3
6 Keegan Murray SAC 18.9 4.9 2.1
7 Malik Monk SAC 14.5 2.9 6.3
8 Marcus Smart MEM 13.9 3.0 4.6
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 2.8 1.4
10 David Roddy MEM 8.7 3.6 1.9
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.7 6.7 2.2
12 Santi Aldama MEM 8.4 4.5 1.7
13 Derrick Rose MEM 8.3 2.2 3.5
14 Luke Kennard MEM 7.6 2.6 1.9
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.2 2.7 2.0
16 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.0 3.1 1.9
17 Trey Lyles SAC 6.7 5.0 1.4
18 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.2 5.1 1.3
19 John Konchar MEM 6.0 4.7 1.4
20 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.5 4.1 1.2
21 Keon Ellis SAC 5.2 1.8 1.8
22 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.0 2.5 0.8
23 Alex Len SAC 3.3 3.5 0.9
24 Chris Duarte SAC 3.1 1.6 0.8
25 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.1 1.4 1.1
26 JaVale McGee SAC 2.9 1.8 0.6
27 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.2 0.9 0.4
28 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.