NBA games

BOS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
134–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30354029134
SA22312325101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SA
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 31 25 6 2
Jaylen Brown S 26 24 6 3
Derrick White S 26 17 3 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 14 9 2
Luke Kornet 16 12 4 2
Sam Hauser 20 11 4 1
Payton Pritchard 19 9 3 7
Al Horford S 20 7 7 4
Neemias Queta 5 5 2 0
Oshae Brissett 21 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 31 22 4 1
Victor Wembanyama S 24 21 7 3
Malaki Branham S 23 11 1 0
Jeremy Sochan S 24 9 3 5
Devonte' Graham 8 9 2 1
Dominick Barlow 13 8 5 1
Tre Jones 22 8 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 20 7 7 4
Cedi Osman 16 5 0 2
Blake Wesley 17 1 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
7 Malaki Branham SA
7%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
25%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 7.6 5.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.3 10.7 3.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.1 5.3 5.4
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.2 7.9 2.0
5 Derrick White BOS 21.1 4.8 6.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 4.0 3.6
7 Malaki Branham SA 13.0 4.2 3.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.6 6.2 3.6
9 Al Horford BOS 10.3 7.5 2.8
10 Tre Jones SA 10.0 2.9 4.7
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.4 3.5 2.8
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.3 3.6 1.6
13 Luke Kornet BOS 6.7 4.7 0.9
14 Cedi Osman SA 6.5 2.4 2.0
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.3 6.1 0.9
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.4 1.4 0.9
17 Julian Champagnie SA 5.1 2.2 0.7
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.2 2.6 0.9
19 Dalano Banton BOS 3.7 2.5 0.7
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 2.1 1.1
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.3 1.5 0.8
22 Devonte' Graham SA 2.7 1.1 1.3
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.6 1.2 0.5
24 Blake Wesley SA 2.6 1.2 1.3
25 Dominick Barlow SA 2.5 1.5 0.5
26 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.