NBA games

BKN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
108–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN36202329108
OKC33263035124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 37 22 7 7
Cam Thomas 26 20 1 1
Nic Claxton S 37 15 16 5
Cameron Johnson S 34 13 6 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 37 13 3 5
Dorian Finney-Smith S 24 8 6 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 15 7 3 4
Royce O'Neale 21 5 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 8 3 2 0
Trendon Watford 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 24 4 6
Josh Giddey S 27 20 6 5
Luguentz Dort S 30 18 4 3
Chet Holmgren S 32 18 10 3
Jalen Williams S 29 17 3 5
Cason Wallace 23 10 3 1
Isaiah Joe 16 7 1 0
Lindy Waters III 2 3 0 0
Jaylin Williams 7 3 3 2
Vasilije Micic 12 2 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
17%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
22%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 5.9 7.7
2 Cam Thomas BKN 21.3 3.0 3.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.4 4.1 4.6
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.3 7.4 2.8
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 17.6 4.2 3.4
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.4 3.8 2.3
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 14.8 4.5 6.9
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.0 6.3 5.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.9 4.1 1.5
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.6 10.1 1.7
11 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 10.7 2.7 1.5
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.1 3.8 1.3
13 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.9 3.6 4.5
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.3 7.6 2.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.6 1.3
16 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.5 3.2 2.6
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 2.3 1.9
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 2.6 1.0
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.3 1.5
20 Trendon Watford BKN 5.1 3.0 1.6
21 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.6 1.5 2.7
22 Harry Giles III BKN 4.3 2.3 0.5
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.0 1.4 0.9
24 Davis Bertans OKC 4.0 1.3 0.9
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.7 2.9 1.2
26 Tre Mann OKC 3.3 1.4 1.4
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.