NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
109129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL33243220109
NO42323025129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 34 5 8
Austin Reaves 36 20 2 9
Anthony Davis S 35 20 10 3
Taurean Prince S 34 15 1 4
Max Christie 29 7 7 0
Rui Hachimura S 8 4 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt S 21 4 2 0
Christian Wood 25 3 5 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 5 2 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 38 26 5 8
Zion Williamson S 32 26 4 6
CJ McCollum S 36 22 5 9
Jonas Valanciunas S 25 13 8 1
Herbert Jones S 29 13 4 1
Larry Nance Jr. 23 11 10 3
Jose Alvarado 20 8 3 1
Naji Marshall 21 6 5 3
Dyson Daniels 8 3 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 8 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
15%
2 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
13%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 Herbert Jones NO
10%
6 CJ McCollum NO
9%
7 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
8 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Anthony Davis LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.5 11.6 4.8
2 LeBron James LAL 26.2 7.3 8.7
3 Brandon Ingram NO 25.1 4.5 6.3
4 Zion Williamson NO 23.9 7.7 4.4
5 CJ McCollum NO 20.7 4.2 4.3
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.8 4.0 5.3
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 17.7 10.8 3.1
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 4.1 1.5
9 Taurean Prince LAL 11.8 3.8 2.7
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.5 2.8 5.4
11 Herbert Jones NO 8.5 3.5 2.2
12 Cam Reddish LAL 8.4 3.0 2.2
13 Naji Marshall NO 7.8 2.7 2.5
14 Christian Wood LAL 6.5 4.2 1.2
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 2.6 1.9
16 Max Christie LAL 5.3 2.4 1.1
17 Dyson Daniels NO 5.2 2.7 1.5
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 4.8 3.6 0.9
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.7 1.2 0.7
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.4 3.8 0.9
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.2 2.0 0.7
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.5 2.4 0.6
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.3 1.7 1.7
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.2 1.1
25 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.5 0.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.