NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28423030130
WSH30282939126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 40 3 13
Dejounte Murray S 34 32 6 3
Jalen Johnson S 37 24 13 4
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 12 1 1
Clint Capela S 33 11 17 3
Saddiq Bey S 32 11 11 0
Patty Mills 8 0 2 0
Bruno Fernando 15 0 3 2
Garrison Mathews 14 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 38 8 5
Deni Avdija S 31 17 12 2
Corey Kispert 18 15 0 4
Tyus Jones S 27 14 0 8
Jordan Poole S 29 13 3 6
Daniel Gafford S 28 10 9 0
Mike Muscala 20 10 4 3
Landry Shamet 19 4 2 2
Delon Wright 18 3 0 2
Bilal Coulibaly 17 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes dunk (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Clint Capela ATL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Tyus Jones WSH
11%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
10 Trae Young ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.7 3.9 13.1
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.4 6.9 4.3
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.9 5.2 5.6
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 21.5 4.3 4.0
5 Jordan Poole WSH 19.8 2.9 4.7
6 Tyus Jones WSH 16.5 4.1 6.5
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.7 7.7 3.1
8 Clint Capela ATL 15.7 13.2 1.8
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.6 7.3 2.2
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 12.0 8.4 1.7
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 2.4 1.7
12 Deni Avdija WSH 11.6 6.1 4.1
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 4.4 2.1
14 Landry Shamet WSH 7.9 1.5 1.5
15 Delon Wright WSH 6.2 2.7 3.4
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.3 2.0 0.9
17 Mike Muscala WSH 5.3 3.1 1.1
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.8 1.2 0.8
19 Patty Mills ATL 3.7 1.8 1.1
20 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.7 1.4 1.1
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.3 2.4 0.6
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 2.2 0.7
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.6 1.9 0.6
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.6 1.6 1.4
25 AJ Griffin ATL 2.5 1.1 0.6
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.4 1.4 0.7
27 Jules Bernard WSH 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.