NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
132–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL34293831132
GS26283533122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 39 8 10
Dante Exum S 34 19 0 5
Josh Green 25 18 0 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 16 6 5
Dereck Lively II S 35 12 14 1
Grant Williams 19 10 6 0
Jaden Hardy S 24 9 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 7 5 1
Dwight Powell 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 25 2 7
Chris Paul S 33 24 2 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 29 17 6 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 16 9 3
Andrew Wiggins 28 14 5 4
Brandin Podziemski 29 13 9 4
Kevon Looney 11 5 3 1
Dario Saric 15 3 9 4
Klay Thompson S 26 3 2 1
Gary Payton II 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
12%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
3 Klay Thompson GS
9%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
6 Dante Exum DAL
8%
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
8 Kevon Looney GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
47%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 33.8 7.4 10.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.0 4.4 5.2
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.5 4.0 3.8
4 Klay Thompson GS 20.0 4.0 2.7
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 18.8 4.1 2.3
6 Dante Exum DAL 16.8 4.1 4.2
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.2 6.0 2.1
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.0 5.0 2.1
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.8 6.7 5.0
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.4 3.9 1.4
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.1 8.0 1.2
12 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.2 5.2
13 Dario Saric GS 9.8 5.1 1.6
14 Chris Paul GS 9.4 3.9 7.5
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.3 2.3 1.7
16 Grant Williams DAL 7.8 3.8 1.8
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.8 6.5 1.2
18 Moses Moody GS 7.0 2.9 1.1
19 Josh Green DAL 6.8 3.1 3.0
20 Kevon Looney GS 6.2 5.5 2.3
21 Seth Curry DAL 6.0 2.1 1.1
22 Gary Payton II GS 5.9 3.3 1.1
23 Brandon Williams DAL 5.4 1.7 0.9
24 Dwight Powell DAL 5.2 3.9 1.0
25 Lester Quinones GS 4.4 1.7 1.2
26 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 2.9 1.0
27 Markieff Morris DAL 3.7 2.0 0.9
28 Jerome Robinson GS 3.7 1.7 0.8
29 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.5 1.3 0.5
30 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 2.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.