NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31262029106
MIN29322126108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 33 17 8
LeBron James S 39 26 3 6
Austin Reaves 29 9 2 0
Taurean Prince S 33 9 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt S 27 8 5 1
Christian Wood 13 7 5 0
Rui Hachimura 17 5 1 0
D'Angelo Russell 20 5 1 3
Cam Reddish S 22 4 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 31 3 3
Naz Reid 27 21 5 1
Mike Conley S 33 15 4 7
Rudy Gobert S 38 13 13 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 9 9 2
Jaden McDaniels S 26 6 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 6 2 2
Kyle Anderson 24 4 3 7
Troy Brown Jr. 8 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
48%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 30.2 11.9 4.7
2 LeBron James LAL 26.9 7.4 8.6
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.5 5.1 6.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.9 10.0 3.5
5 Austin Reaves LAL 19.3 4.0 5.4
6 Mike Conley MIN 14.2 2.9 6.5
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.0 4.8 2.0
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 11.5 1.7
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.6 3.0 5.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.5 3.2 1.4
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.1 1.4
12 Taurean Prince LAL 11.6 3.7 2.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.6 3.8 4.0
14 Cam Reddish LAL 7.5 2.6 1.7
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.5 1.9 2.3
16 Christian Wood LAL 6.4 4.3 1.3
17 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.7 1.7 1.4
18 Max Christie LAL 5.3 2.4 1.1
19 Shake Milton MIN 4.5 1.0 1.3
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 3.7 0.8
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.4 2.5 0.6
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.3 1.8 1.7
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 0.7 1.0
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 0.8 0.5
25 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 1.9 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.