NBA games

PHI @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
92–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI1731232192
CHI21352425105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 35 20 0 7
Tobias Harris S 34 15 7 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 28 11 5 2
Paul Reed S 28 11 7 3
De'Anthony Melton S 26 9 3 0
Nicolas Batum 19 9 3 2
Mo Bamba 13 5 5 2
Patrick Beverley 24 4 2 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 17 4 2 1
Furkan Korkmaz 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 24 6 5
Coby White S 40 20 8 2
Andre Drummond S 30 15 23 2
Alex Caruso S 28 14 2 5
Patrick Williams S 33 13 3 3
Ayo Dosunmu 29 6 3 2
Terry Taylor 17 6 6 1
Jevon Carter 13 4 2 1
Dalen Terry 11 3 0 0
Julian Phillips 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
6 Andre Drummond CHI
9%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
8 Paul Reed PHI
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.6 4.4 6.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 3.6 6.1
3 Coby White CHI 23.2 5.5 6.0
4 Tobias Harris PHI 18.8 5.9 4.2
5 Patrick Williams CHI 13.9 4.1 2.0
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.5 3.8 1.9
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.8 3.5 1.3
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.7 4.0 2.5
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.5 4.0 2.2
10 Andre Drummond CHI 8.1 9.3 0.9
11 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.9 3.2 1.2
12 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 3.2 0.8
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.1 3.0 2.2
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 6.0 2.2 1.4
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.8 4.7 1.6
16 Jevon Carter CHI 5.5 1.5 1.1
17 Robert Covington PHI 5.0 3.1 0.9
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.6 3.3 0.8
19 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.9 2.6 0.6
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.8 1.4 0.8
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.9 1.0
22 KJ Martin PHI 2.4 1.3 0.7
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.3 1.1 0.5
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.3 1.3 0.7
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.5 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.