NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
126–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27353034126
IND32324135140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 38 6 2
Julius Randle S 39 28 12 4
Jalen Brunson S 41 28 1 6
Josh Hart S 38 10 10 1
Evan Fournier 17 10 2 2
Miles McBride 18 5 0 1
Charlie Brown Jr. 1 3 0 0
Taj Gibson 14 2 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 2 9 6
Ryan Arcidiacono 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 28 8 2
Aaron Nesmith S 31 25 1 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 22 5 23
Bennedict Mathurin 26 20 0 0
Andrew Nembhard S 33 14 5 5
Obi Toppin 20 9 8 2
Jalen Smith S 21 9 4 2
Buddy Hield 18 6 2 1
T.J. McConnell 12 5 0 3
Isaiah Jackson 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
20%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
12%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
7 Jalen Smith IND
7%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
15%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.3 5.0 7.2
2 Julius Randle NY 28.8 9.0 4.2
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 23.3 3.5 15.7
4 Myles Turner IND 18.6 6.7 1.5
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.8 3.8 2.7
6 Buddy Hield IND 14.1 4.1 3.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.5 4.0 1.8
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY 10.1 2.9 2.0
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.8 9.1 1.9
10 Obi Toppin IND 9.2 4.7 1.5
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.0 2.1 4.2
12 Jalen Smith IND 8.5 4.2 0.9
13 Evan Fournier NY 8.4 2.3 0.9
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.1 5.0 1.0
15 Josh Hart NY 8.0 4.6 3.1
16 T.J. McConnell IND 6.4 2.7 5.0
17 Jordan Nwora IND 4.9 1.7 0.9
18 Jarace Walker IND 3.3 1.5 1.0
19 Taj Gibson NY 3.0 2.4 0.6
20 Ben Sheppard IND 2.9 0.7 0.6
21 Miles McBride NY 2.4 0.6 0.5
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 1.2 0.3
23 James Johnson IND 1.8 0.7 0.9
24 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.6 0.5 0.3
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.