NBA games

TOR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
127–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR24204241127
DET25273839129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DET
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 40 35 5 4
Dennis Schroder S 37 30 0 9
Gary Trent Jr. S 39 24 1 4
Scottie Barnes S 36 22 9 2
Thaddeus Young 11 6 1 1
Jakob Poeltl S 35 4 14 5
Chris Boucher 17 4 2 0
Jalen McDaniels 17 2 1 0
Otto Porter Jr. 8 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 30 3 12
Bojan Bogdanovic S 37 19 7 3
Jalen Duren S 34 18 17 2
Kevin Knox II S 31 17 2 2
Alec Burks 19 16 0 1
Jaden Ivey S 29 12 5 4
James Wiseman 13 8 4 0
Ausar Thompson 12 6 1 0
Isaiah Livers 17 3 1 1
Killian Hayes 10 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bojan Bogdanovic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
12%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
9 Kevin Knox II DET
8%
10 Dennis Schroder TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.8 5.1 7.1
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 26.5 10.2 6.6
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.5 5.9 6.1
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 19.8 3.9 3.1
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.4 5.0 3.9
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 11.2 2.5
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.1 2.8 6.6
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.6 3.1 2.0
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.1 7.9 2.2
10 Killian Hayes DET 10.6 3.7 4.5
11 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.4 4.6 0.7
12 Alec Burks DET 7.9 2.2 0.9
13 James Wiseman DET 7.6 5.1 1.2
14 Ausar Thompson DET 7.5 4.3 1.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.5 3.6 0.6
16 Isaiah Livers DET 5.1 2.3 1.3
17 Kevin Knox II DET 4.9 1.7 0.8
18 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.3 1.2
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.5 1.7 0.9
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.3 1.4 0.9
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.7 2.3 1.1
22 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.7 2.0 0.8
23 Joe Harris DET 3.0 1.0 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.