NBA games

MIA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
109–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28253521109
UTAH27273429117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home UTAH
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 28 16 3
Tyler Herro S 39 25 6 6
Kevin Love 20 12 6 2
Duncan Robinson 32 11 4 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 9 1 1
Jimmy Butler III S 23 8 2 1
Jamal Cain 11 6 1 1
Nikola Jovic S 10 6 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 26 4 6 1
R.J. Hampton S 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 26 22 2 5
Keyonte George 28 21 6 2
Kelly Olynyk 28 19 6 10
Simone Fontecchio S 31 12 7 2
Lauri Markkanen S 26 12 5 1
Walker Kessler 23 10 8 0
John Collins S 21 10 6 0
Jordan Clarkson 25 9 2 3
Kris Dunn S 18 2 1 6
Ochai Agbaji 15 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 R.J. Hampton MIA
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
10 John Collins UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
45%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.9 5.8 4.9
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.2 3.6 4.5
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.8 4.7 5.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.7 10.6 4.9
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 9.8 2.6
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.3 4.8 3.4
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.3 3.7 6.0
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.8 2.6 4.2
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.5 3.1 3.9
10 Keyonte George UTAH 14.0 3.1 4.8
11 John Collins UTAH 12.9 7.7 1.3
12 Josh Richardson MIA 11.9 2.8 2.8
13 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.7 3.5 1.3
14 Kevin Love MIA 10.5 6.1 2.6
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.7 8.1 1.4
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.3 5.1 5.8
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.1 3.1 1.4
18 Kris Dunn UTAH 8.5 3.7 5.5
19 Jamal Cain MIA 6.5 3.7 0.9
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.1 4.0 1.9
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.9 2.8 1.4
22 R.J. Hampton MIA 5.7 1.6 2.3
23 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.0 5.8 1.0
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.4 2.7 0.5
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.