NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
106–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25292131106
LAC33263523117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 22 2 4
Marcus Smart S 32 22 2 2
Ja Morant S 37 19 6 10
Desmond Bane S 37 18 7 5
Santi Aldama 22 12 5 1
Vince Williams Jr. 22 5 1 5
David Roddy 22 4 2 1
Xavier Tillman 17 2 4 0
Bismack Biyombo S 8 2 2 0
Ziaire Williams 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 23 7 3
James Harden S 44 16 4 13
Ivica Zubac S 33 15 20 1
Russell Westbrook 20 14 6 6
Amir Coffey S 31 13 2 2
Norman Powell 25 13 6 1
Terance Mann S 23 11 3 2
Kobe Brown 15 7 4 0
Daniel Theis 13 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes layup (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Marcus Smart MEM
10%
6 Paul George LAC
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
7%
8 James Harden LAC
7%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 30.4 6.1 8.9
2 Desmond Bane MEM 25.8 4.7 5.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.4 5.3 2.0
4 Paul George LAC 23.2 5.1 4.5
5 James Harden LAC 22.7 5.9 9.3
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.3 3.2 1.6
7 Marcus Smart MEM 13.7 3.1 5.4
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 10.8 2.1
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.5 6.7 4.1
10 David Roddy MEM 9.2 3.7 1.9
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.5 6.5 1.9
12 Terance Mann LAC 7.7 3.1 1.9
13 Santi Aldama MEM 7.5 4.1 1.8
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.2 2.8 1.9
15 Daniel Theis LAC 7.0 3.6 0.9
16 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.5 5.8 1.6
17 John Konchar MEM 6.0 4.5 1.4
18 Amir Coffey LAC 5.6 2.2 1.1
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.3 3.8 1.1
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.1 1.2 3.0
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.3 1.2 0.6
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 1.7 1.0
23 Bones Hyland LAC 3.8 1.0 1.2
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 2.2 1.0
25 Moussa Diabate LAC 2.6 1.8 0.5
26 Jordan Miller LAC 2.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.