NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
128–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29273834128
POR29423330134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 32 29 7 7
Devin Vassell S 31 22 3 5
Doug McDermott 23 18 1 1
Zach Collins S 18 17 3 2
Tre Jones 27 14 8 5
Malaki Branham S 29 11 6 3
Julian Champagnie S 12 7 3 0
Cedi Osman 18 4 4 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 2 1 2
Dominick Barlow 14 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 39 27 6 4
Malcolm Brogdon S 37 27 1 7
Jabari Walker 30 25 9 1
Scoot Henderson S 37 22 7 11
Toumani Camara S 36 13 11 2
Skylar Mays 20 11 2 2
Matisse Thybulle 27 7 1 0
Ibou Badji 10 2 2 1
Moses Brown S 4 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
18%
2 Devin Vassell SA
13%
3 Scoot Henderson POR
12%
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
5 Moses Brown POR
9%
6 Toumani Camara POR
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Malaki Branham SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 22.7 4.7 3.9
2 Keldon Johnson SA 20.2 5.4 4.1
3 Devin Vassell SA 19.3 4.0 3.9
4 Scoot Henderson POR 17.1 3.7 5.5
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.2 3.5 5.0
6 Malaki Branham SA 13.3 3.6 3.8
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 6.3 3.9
8 Zach Collins SA 11.6 5.7 2.3
9 Tre Jones SA 9.9 2.6 5.1
10 Toumani Camara POR 9.0 4.9 1.2
11 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 6.0 1.2
12 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 3.9 1.5
13 Cedi Osman SA 6.8 2.3 1.9
14 Skylar Mays POR 6.8 2.4 3.6
15 Julian Champagnie SA 5.2 2.0 0.7
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.1 1.4 1.0
17 Kris Murray POR 4.2 2.3 0.9
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 2.0 1.1
19 Moses Brown POR 3.7 4.7 0.6
20 Blake Wesley SA 3.0 1.4 1.4
21 Ish Wainright POR 2.8 1.3 0.6
22 Dominick Barlow SA 2.1 0.9 0.3
23 Justin Minaya POR 2.1 1.1 0.6
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.0 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.