NBA games

CHA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
119–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30283130119
PHX36323530133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHX
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 39 42 4 8
Brandon Miller S 31 20 1 3
Cody Martin 27 13 4 1
P.J. Washington 28 13 4 4
Miles Bridges S 37 11 7 6
Nick Smith Jr. 13 10 2 1
Nick Richards S 31 6 2 0
Bryce McGowens S 21 4 1 3
Ish Smith 13 0 1 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 35 4 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 24 15 1
Kevin Durant S 39 21 4 11
Eric Gordon 33 21 2 1
Grayson Allen S 33 16 4 3
Chimezie Metu 19 9 7 1
Bradley Beal S 30 6 3 7
Saben Lee 14 1 0 3
Jordan Goodwin 1 0 0 0
Udoka Azubuike 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot layup (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Nick Richards CHA
7%
10 Drew Eubanks PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.3 5.9 6.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.7 4.9 8.3
3 Terry Rozier CHA 24.4 4.2 7.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.0 6.7 3.3
5 Brandon Miller CHA 16.9 4.1 3.0
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 16.3 11.5 3.6
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.1 4.5 2.8
8 Bradley Beal PHX 14.1 3.1 3.2
9 P.J. Washington CHA 13.3 5.5 2.8
10 Eric Gordon PHX 12.1 2.8 2.2
11 Nick Richards CHA 10.4 8.5 1.3
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 7.7 4.1 1.1
13 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.9 2.4 1.1
14 Cody Martin CHA 6.7 2.5 1.5
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.7 1.6 0.9
16 Saben Lee PHX 6.5 2.2 2.2
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.5 3.8 3.2
18 Ish Smith CHA 6.0 1.6 3.7
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.3 4.3 0.9
20 James Bouknight CHA 5.1 1.6 0.6
21 Udoka Azubuike PHX 4.4 4.0 0.6
22 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.2 1.7 0.7
23 JT Thor CHA 3.8 2.0 0.6
24 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.8 2.3 0.7
25 Nate Mensah CHA 3.1 2.7 0.5
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.