NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33213431119
DEN2721202593

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 40 4 3
Chet Holmgren S 28 24 6 3
Josh Giddey S 21 12 8 4
Jalen Williams S 31 11 7 9
Aaron Wiggins 12 7 5 0
Isaiah Joe 13 5 1 1
Kenrich Williams 15 5 2 0
Cason Wallace 18 4 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 32 4 4 1
Lindy Waters III 3 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 32 19 10 7
Peyton Watson S 32 14 2 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 12 6 1
Julian Strawther 12 10 1 0
Jamal Murray S 36 9 3 11
Reggie Jackson 15 8 2 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 8 0 2
DeAndre Jordan 13 6 8 1
Christian Braun 17 4 3 1
Braxton Key 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
6%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.8 5.9 7.1
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 24.7 7.2 2.4
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.7 11.3 8.6
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.7 5.2 5.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 20.8 4.0 3.6
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.1 6.2 1.6
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.6 3.8 1.6
8 Josh Giddey OKC 11.1 5.7 4.3
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.3 2.2 4.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.7 3.1 2.2
11 Peyton Watson DEN 9.2 3.9 1.4
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.4 2.6 1.5
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.2 3.0 1.6
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.4 1.1
15 Justin Holiday DEN 6.6 2.4 1.6
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.1 2.1 1.6
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.2 2.2 0.8
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.8 2.3 1.5
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.5 3.7 0.7
20 Davis Bertans OKC 4.0 1.4 0.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 4.6 0.8
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.7 0.9 2.6
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.5 1.0
24 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.4 2.0 0.8
25 Tre Mann OKC 3.4 1.5 1.2
26 Braxton Key DEN 3.4 2.3 0.9
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.2 3.3 0.4
28 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.