NBA games

PHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
131–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26362841131
HOU32313430127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home HOU
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 42 4 4
Tobias Harris S 35 22 4 7
De'Anthony Melton S 36 15 3 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 27 14 5 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 24 13 1 1
Patrick Beverley 20 9 3 3
Robert Covington 16 7 4 0
Paul Reed S 24 7 2 4
Mo Bamba 5 2 2 0
Danuel House Jr. 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 43 33 3 10
Jalen Green S 36 31 6 4
Alperen Sengun S 34 28 7 8
Jeff Green S 33 10 4 0
Tari Eason 27 10 11 2
Jock Landale 8 6 1 0
Aaron Holiday 15 4 2 3
Jae'Sean Tate S 35 4 5 2
Amen Thompson 9 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Fred VanVleet HOU
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
5 Paul Reed PHI
10%
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI
10%
7 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
9%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
9 Jalen Green HOU
8%
10 Robert Covington PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.2 3.5 6.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.7 10.2 4.1
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.3 4.1 7.6
4 Tobias Harris PHI 17.4 6.2 3.4
5 Jalen Green HOU 13.7 3.8 3.4
6 Tari Eason HOU 12.1 7.8 1.7
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.8 4.4 2.5
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.6 3.8 1.2
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.4 2.4 0.8
10 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.2 2.1 1.2
11 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.6 3.0 1.2
12 Jeff Green HOU 6.6 1.9 1.1
13 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.6 2.2 1.4
14 Paul Reed PHI 5.5 4.9 1.3
15 Amen Thompson HOU 5.3 2.8 1.3
16 Robert Covington PHI 5.2 3.4 0.9
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.1 2.9 0.9
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.9 3.7 0.8
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.8 1.4 0.9
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.7 0.8
21 Jaden Springer PHI 3.3 1.4 0.8
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.2 1.2 0.7
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 2.0 0.6
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.