NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
119–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31214027119
CLE37222131111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 34 16 5
Damian Lillard S 34 31 2 4
Malik Beasley S 35 15 5 0
Khris Middleton S 33 13 3 11
Bobby Portis 23 9 5 1
Brook Lopez S 36 9 10 2
MarJon Beauchamp 11 5 1 0
Pat Connaughton 23 3 1 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 0 0 0
Cameron Payne 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 34 6 9
Jarrett Allen S 40 30 12 6
Craig Porter Jr. 15 14 1 1
Max Strus S 36 12 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 30 8 2 3
Caris LeVert 28 6 1 4
Sam Merrill 15 3 0 1
Georges Niang 14 2 0 0
Tristan Thompson 8 2 6 1
Dean Wade S 17 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
6 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
8%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
81%
Jumper
4%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.2 10.8 6.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.1 6.0 6.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 4.4 6.6
4 Khris Middleton MIL 19.8 5.3 5.5
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.0 10.7 3.6
6 Caris LeVert CLE 16.0 3.5 3.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.7 7.2 1.6
8 Max Strus CLE 14.4 4.3 4.0
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.4 4.9 1.3
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.2 3.7 2.4
11 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.6 1.5
12 Dean Wade CLE 9.8 5.5 1.3
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.6 2.8 1.5
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.7 3.5 4.1
15 Ty Jerome CLE 7.0 2.1 3.6
16 Tristan Thompson CLE 6.2 4.8 1.1
17 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 1.3 1.0
18 Cameron Payne MIL 6.0 1.2 2.4
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 3.5 1.4
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.1 2.5 0.8
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.4 2.1 1.2
22 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.2 0.7
23 Chris Livingston MIL 3.5 1.4 0.5
24 Robin Lopez MIL 2.4 1.3 0.5
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.2 0.6
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.0 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.