NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR20333332118
BOS35333121120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 38 30 10 5
Pascal Siakam S 41 27 5 5
Dennis Schroder 35 15 2 9
Jalen McDaniels 15 13 0 2
Jakob Poeltl S 22 12 10 3
OG Anunoby S 37 12 2 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 6 4 1
Chris Boucher 7 3 3 0
Malachi Flynn 6 0 0 0
Precious Achiuwa 2 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 41 31 10 6
Derrick White S 36 21 5 7
Luke Kornet S 33 20 8 3
Jrue Holiday S 32 15 2 3
Payton Pritchard 25 9 5 6
Sam Hauser S 34 9 9 1
Neemias Queta 14 6 5 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 7 5 1 1
Dalano Banton 2 2 0 0
Oshae Brissett 15 2 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"O.G. Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Jrue Holiday BOS
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 OG Anunoby TOR
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Pascal Siakam TOR
11%
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Precious Achiuwa TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
19%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.1 7.3 5.7
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.7 5.9 5.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.5 5.2 4.7
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.2 9.9 6.5
5 Derrick White BOS 21.4 4.3 5.5
6 OG Anunoby TOR 17.0 3.9 3.5
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.3 5.8 4.8
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 11.8 2.8 6.0
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.8 2.8 2.1
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.0 7.2 2.0
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.0 3.1 2.5
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.4 4.6 1.5
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 2.9 1.6
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.9 2.3 2.8
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.6 3.4 0.6
16 Neemias Queta BOS 5.6 5.5 0.8
17 Gradey Dick TOR 4.1 1.4 0.8
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.1 2.2 0.8
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.0 1.8 0.7
20 Luke Kornet BOS 3.9 3.2 0.5
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.6 2.1 1.0
22 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.5 2.1 0.7
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.5 1.8 0.5
24 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.5 1.2 0.5
25 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.