NBA games

SAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC23303331117
ATL36352019110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ATL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 41 31 5 8
Domantas Sabonis S 35 25 10 7
Trey Lyles 25 19 6 1
Malik Monk 31 15 4 8
Keegan Murray S 36 9 5 0
Kevin Huerter S 10 7 3 1
Chris Duarte 25 5 0 4
Alex Len 13 2 4 4
Harrison Barnes S 12 2 0 0
Davion Mitchell 13 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 24 3 9
Dejounte Murray S 37 18 6 3
Jalen Johnson S 35 16 15 4
Saddiq Bey S 32 15 7 4
Clint Capela S 28 12 12 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 12 4 5
Onyeka Okongwu 23 7 3 1
Patty Mills 11 3 0 0
Garrison Mathews 8 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes dunk (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Clint Capela ATL
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
10%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 30.1 4.8 6.5
2 Trae Young ATL 27.0 3.6 11.4
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.6 12.4 8.2
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.5 4.7 5.7
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.7 4.2 3.4
6 Keegan Murray SAC 19.3 4.6 2.1
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 14.9 7.0 3.0
8 Malik Monk SAC 14.5 2.7 6.3
9 Clint Capela ATL 14.5 10.7 1.5
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.5 7.0 1.8
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.7 7.2 1.6
12 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.9 3.3 1.6
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.5 2.7 2.1
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.2 4.9 1.5
15 Keon Ellis SAC 5.9 2.1 2.0
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.1 1.4 0.8
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.9 2.8 1.0
18 JaVale McGee SAC 3.7 2.3 0.8
19 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.2 0.9
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.2 1.8 0.7
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.1 1.4 0.9
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.1 1.9 0.5
23 Trent Forrest ATL 3.1 1.5 1.6
24 Chris Duarte SAC 3.0 1.8 0.6
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 1.3 0.6
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.4 1.3 0.6
27 AJ Griffin ATL 2.3 0.8 0.5
28 Patty Mills ATL 2.2 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.