NBA games

BKN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
104–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25283318104
WSH25293026110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home WSH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 36 19 5 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 27 17 8 6
Cameron Johnson S 33 16 7 3
Cam Thomas 24 15 1 3
Nic Claxton S 30 11 12 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 10 9 3
Royce O'Neale 18 7 3 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 20 5 2 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 33 4 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 26 8 2
Deni Avdija S 34 21 13 6
Corey Kispert 17 15 0 0
Tyus Jones S 31 12 4 6
Mike Muscala 31 11 3 3
Landry Shamet 18 8 1 2
Jordan Poole S 25 5 0 5
Daniel Gafford S 17 4 5 0
Delon Wright 17 4 3 2
Bilal Coulibaly 20 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
4 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
7%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
9 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
7%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.3 6.5 4.3
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.1 3.4 3.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.3 3.0 4.7
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 20.1 4.5 4.2
5 Tyus Jones WSH 16.6 4.1 6.2
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 14.9 4.6 7.3
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.7 4.1 2.2
8 Daniel Gafford WSH 13.1 8.6 2.1
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.8 12.0 1.8
10 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 11.5 3.1 1.7
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.2 2.6 1.7
12 Deni Avdija WSH 11.1 5.6 3.7
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.0 4.9 2.1
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.4 4.2 1.2
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 10.0 4.1 5.1
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.2 8.5 2.2
17 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.9 3.8 2.7
18 Landry Shamet WSH 7.8 1.5 1.5
19 Trendon Watford BKN 6.3 3.9 1.8
20 Delon Wright WSH 5.7 2.3 3.5
21 Harry Giles III BKN 5.5 3.3 0.7
22 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.0 2.1
23 Mike Muscala WSH 4.4 2.8 0.9
24 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 1.5 0.8
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.6 2.5 0.8
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.1 1.6 0.7
27 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.