NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
108–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY29153034108
ORL26293131117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 38 12 6
Jalen Brunson S 34 20 7 8
RJ Barrett S 37 19 6 2
Immanuel Quickley 28 12 1 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 7 3 3
Josh Hart 31 5 4 0
Quentin Grimes 14 3 2 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 20 2 1 2
Taj Gibson 15 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 32 9 2
Paolo Banchero S 36 29 10 4
Jalen Suggs S 31 21 2 6
Goga Bitadze S 30 13 7 0
Cole Anthony 23 9 2 5
Moritz Wagner 18 7 11 1
Anthony Black S 29 4 6 5
Chuma Okeke 12 2 0 1
Caleb Houstan 21 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 RJ Barrett NY
11%
5 Julius Randle NY
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 4.6 6.8
2 Julius Randle NY 25.9 8.4 4.0
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.7 6.8 4.9
4 Franz Wagner ORL 23.0 6.1 5.6
5 RJ Barrett NY 18.1 4.7 2.6
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.1 4.4 3.8
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 13.3 2.3 2.0
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.3 3.3 2.5
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY 9.7 3.1 1.9
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.3 9.9 1.9
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.6 6.4 2.0
12 Anthony Black ORL 8.3 3.4 2.3
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.3 3.6 1.4
14 Evan Fournier NY 8.1 2.3 0.9
15 Josh Hart NY 7.8 5.0 3.4
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.4 6.0 1.5
17 Quentin Grimes NY 6.4 1.8 1.0
18 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.4 1.5 1.5
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.5 2.2 0.9
20 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.3 1.5 0.7
21 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 2.0 0.5
22 Miles McBride NY 2.2 0.6 0.5
23 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.4 0.8 0.3
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.