NBA games

CHA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
112–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31262332112
LAL28304134133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAL
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 33 20 5 5
Terry Rozier S 32 18 6 8
Brandon Miller S 29 17 1 2
Nick Richards S 26 11 10 1
Bryce McGowens S 22 10 2 1
P.J. Washington 25 9 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 18 6 3 4
Ish Smith 14 6 3 4
James Bouknight 6 5 2 1
Cody Martin 20 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 26 26 8 2
Rui Hachimura S 28 17 4 1
LeBron James S 25 17 4 11
Austin Reaves 24 16 2 4
D'Angelo Russell 29 16 3 9
Jaxson Hayes 7 10 2 0
Max Christie 24 10 7 3
Christian Wood 23 9 5 4
Jarred Vanderbilt S 24 7 4 3
Taurean Prince S 23 3 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 1-foot dunk (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
9%
8 Bryce McGowens CHA
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
10 P.J. Washington CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.3 12.7 4.8
2 LeBron James LAL 26.7 7.9 9.1
3 Terry Rozier CHA 24.4 4.2 7.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.2 6.5 3.3
5 Austin Reaves LAL 20.1 4.4 6.2
6 Brandon Miller CHA 17.1 4.2 3.0
7 P.J. Washington CHA 14.1 5.5 3.3
8 Taurean Prince LAL 12.6 3.9 2.6
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.0 3.0 5.4
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.0 1.5
11 Nick Richards CHA 10.5 8.9 1.4
12 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.6 1.5 0.9
13 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.5 2.3 1.1
14 Ish Smith CHA 5.8 1.5 4.0
15 Christian Wood LAL 5.7 3.9 0.9
16 James Bouknight CHA 4.1 1.1 0.5
17 Max Christie LAL 4.0 1.5 0.9
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 3.9 0.8
19 Nate Mensah CHA 3.1 2.6 0.6
20 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.5 0.5
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.9 2.5 0.7
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.8 1.6 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.