NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA38212831118
POR14312931105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 24 30 6 6
Devin Vassell S 35 17 5 7
Jeremy Sochan S 31 16 7 3
Malaki Branham S 29 13 5 4
Zach Collins 17 11 7 2
Keldon Johnson 31 9 3 2
Doug McDermott 16 8 1 1
Tre Jones 26 8 5 6
Cedi Osman 16 4 2 2
Julian Champagnie S 14 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 41 29 10 5
Malcolm Brogdon S 37 29 6 6
Scoot Henderson S 36 25 3 4
Ibou Badji 14 7 9 0
Jabari Walker 30 6 9 0
Moses Brown S 14 4 7 0
Matisse Thybulle 28 4 2 1
Toumani Camara S 21 1 7 0
Skylar Mays 14 0 3 0
Ish Wainright 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 7-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Moses Brown POR
9%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
7 Malaki Branham SA
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
37%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 26.6 3.9 6.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.4 11.0 3.6
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.7 4.4 3.6
4 Keldon Johnson SA 21.4 6.0 4.0
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 3.8 3.4
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.3 3.5 5.2
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 12.9 3.4 5.1
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.7 5.9 3.5
9 Malaki Branham SA 11.6 3.3 3.3
10 Zach Collins SA 11.5 5.8 2.4
11 Toumani Camara POR 9.6 5.5 1.4
12 Tre Jones SA 9.2 2.4 4.7
13 Duop Reath POR 9.1 4.2 1.2
14 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 5.6 1.3
15 Skylar Mays POR 7.5 2.6 4.9
16 Cedi Osman SA 7.0 2.7 2.3
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 3.8 1.6
18 Doug McDermott SA 5.1 1.3 1.0
19 Julian Champagnie SA 4.5 1.9 0.7
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 2.1 1.1
21 Moses Brown POR 3.6 4.6 0.6
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.0 1.3 1.6
23 Ish Wainright POR 2.7 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.