NBA games

MIA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA22363323114
GS25262526102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home GS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 31 26 7 2
Jamal Cain 28 18 6 0
Bam Adebayo S 36 17 11 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 39 17 5 6
Nikola Jovic 20 11 3 3
Kevin Love 13 8 7 4
R.J. Hampton S 25 7 2 3
Duncan Robinson 30 5 2 4
Haywood Highsmith S 18 3 0 0
Cole Swider 1 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 13 4 5
Klay Thompson S 25 13 0 5
Andrew Wiggins 26 11 2 4
Moses Moody 13 11 3 0
Jonathan Kuminga S 24 10 5 1
Brandin Podziemski S 28 10 3 6
Dario Saric 20 10 6 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 26 10 11 1
Chris Paul 27 9 4 4
Kevon Looney S 14 5 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 1-foot dunk (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Stephen Curry GS
13%
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
12%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
6 Klay Thompson GS
10%
7 Kevon Looney GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Kevin Love MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
43%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.2 4.3 4.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.0 5.6 4.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.7 9.7 4.6
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.7 4.4 2.9
5 Klay Thompson GS 18.2 4.1 2.4
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.4 3.5 3.8
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.9 5.3 1.9
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.6 4.8 1.7
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.5 6.6 4.2
10 Josh Richardson MIA 11.5 2.9 2.8
11 Dario Saric GS 10.1 4.9 1.4
12 Kevin Love MIA 9.8 5.6 2.4
13 Draymond Green GS 9.6 5.1 5.1
14 Chris Paul GS 8.3 3.4 6.6
15 Cole Swider MIA 7.4 1.5 1.2
16 Moses Moody GS 6.6 2.7 1.0
17 Jamal Cain MIA 5.7 3.4 0.7
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.7 4.8 1.0
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 5.4 2.1
20 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.9 2.5 1.3
21 R.J. Hampton MIA 4.4 1.3 1.9
22 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.9 3.0 1.4
23 Lester Quinones GS 3.3 1.1 1.0
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.7 0.4
25 Cory Joseph GS 3.0 0.9 1.7
26 Jerome Robinson GS 2.7 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.