NBA games

MEM @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27213522105
DEN33324136142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DEN
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 25 23 1 2
Marcus Smart S 23 17 3 5
David Roddy 29 15 0 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 14 4 2
John Konchar 25 10 7 3
Ziaire Williams 24 7 2 1
Jacob Gilyard 12 6 0 1
Xavier Tillman 22 6 3 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 30 5 11 2
Bismack Biyombo S 22 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 26 14 10
Jamal Murray S 26 23 3 9
Peyton Watson S 23 20 5 2
Julian Strawther 25 12 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 12 2 3
Christian Braun 23 11 3 4
Reggie Jackson 17 9 2 7
Justin Holiday 18 8 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 8 4 0
Zeke Nnaji 6 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 31.1 6.4 7.9
2 Desmond Bane MEM 26.3 4.9 5.6
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.6 11.2 8.1
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 5.1 5.0
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.5 5.3 1.7
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.3 6.3 1.6
7 Marcus Smart MEM 12.7 3.2 5.0
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.1 2.0 4.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.3 3.2 2.1
10 Peyton Watson DEN 8.8 3.5 1.4
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.7 6.0 1.7
12 David Roddy MEM 7.7 4.2 1.8
13 Santi Aldama MEM 7.6 4.2 1.7
14 Julian Strawther DEN 6.9 1.9 1.2
15 Christian Braun DEN 6.7 2.7 1.5
16 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.5 2.6 1.7
17 Bismack Biyombo MEM 6.3 5.9 1.4
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.7 1.5
19 Xavier Tillman MEM 4.8 3.5 0.8
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 4.5 0.8
21 John Konchar MEM 4.2 3.3 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 3.3 0.6
23 Jacob Gilyard MEM 3.6 0.7 2.4
24 Braxton Key DEN 2.5 1.8 0.8
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.