NBA games

UTAH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
105112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH37142529105
NO39202231112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NO
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 30 26 5 3
Lauri Markkanen S 35 24 10 5
Walker Kessler S 29 11 4 0
Jordan Clarkson 24 10 2 6
John Collins S 26 8 12 0
Kris Dunn S 19 7 0 3
Kelly Olynyk 19 6 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 14 5 2 0
Keyonte George 22 4 3 5
Ochai Agbaji 16 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 26 3 5
CJ McCollum S 32 22 3 6
Zion Williamson S 30 21 10 8
Larry Nance Jr. 25 9 7 0
Naji Marshall 16 9 2 2
Jose Alvarado 12 7 0 0
Herbert Jones S 29 6 3 1
Trey Murphy III 23 6 1 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 6 4 1
Dyson Daniels 14 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
9%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
8%
7 John Collins UTAH
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
14%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 25.0 4.6 6.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 6.9 4.4
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.3 3.6 4.3
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.1 8.5 2.1
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.5 3.9 5.9
6 CJ McCollum NO 19.2 4.1 4.5
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 18.1 11.5 3.1
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.4 2.6 3.7
9 Trey Murphy III NO 15.0 4.3 2.1
10 Keyonte George UTAH 14.8 3.2 4.6
11 John Collins UTAH 13.7 7.0 1.4
12 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.2 3.4 1.3
13 Herbert Jones NO 9.9 3.5 2.5
14 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.6 5.1 5.4
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 9.2 3.1 1.2
16 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.1 8.6 1.3
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 8.6 4.0 5.3
18 Naji Marshall NO 7.3 2.8 2.5
19 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 2.9 1.9
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.8 2.7 0.8
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 5.3 5.9 1.0
22 Dyson Daniels NO 5.1 2.5 1.3
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 2.1 0.8
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.7 2.4 0.6
25 Larry Nance Jr. NO 3.3 2.4 0.5
26 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.9 1.7 0.5
27 Cody Zeller NO 2.5 2.2 1.1
28 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.5 0.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.