NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26303519110
MIN37243720118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 32 3 3
Jaden Hardy S 31 17 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 15 9 0
Dwight Powell 30 12 14 6
Seth Curry 30 11 2 3
Dante Exum S 24 11 2 6
Grant Williams S 30 8 3 3
Josh Green 15 2 0 5
Dereck Lively II S 15 2 4 2
Markieff Morris 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 44 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 38 20 11 2
Jaden McDaniels S 34 12 0 0
Mike Conley S 28 10 2 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 10 8 3
Naz Reid 18 9 4 2
Kyle Anderson 27 8 10 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 3 0 3
Troy Brown Jr. 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grant Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
9%
6 Dante Exum DAL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Markieff Morris DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
35%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.7 5.2 6.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.1 10.5 3.6
3 Dante Exum DAL 16.8 4.1 4.0
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.5 4.0 1.9
5 Mike Conley MIN 15.0 3.2 6.2
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.3 5.6 2.1
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 11.9 1.9
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.4 3.3 1.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.5 3.9 1.4
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.6 7.8 1.1
11 Grant Williams DAL 8.0 3.8 1.5
12 Josh Green DAL 7.5 3.2 2.6
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.5 2.2 2.0
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.3 3.5 3.6
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.1 2.2 1.7
16 Seth Curry DAL 6.0 2.4 1.1
17 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 6.0 1.9 1.5
18 Brandon Williams DAL 5.5 1.6 0.9
19 Shake Milton MIN 5.4 1.4 1.5
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.0 0.8
21 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.4 1.6 0.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.6 2.2 0.8
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.2 3.8 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.7 0.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.9 1.2 0.7
26 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 0.8 1.0
27 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.5 1.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.