IND @ CHI
NBA
United Center
·Final
120–104
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 37 | 26 | 22 | 35 | 120 |
| CHI | 31 | 21 | 25 | 27 | 104 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND
away
home
CHI
41%
59%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Turner S | 26 | 24 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrese Haliburton S | 37 | 21 | 3 | 20 |
| Buddy Hield | 33 | 19 | 6 | 2 |
| Jalen Smith S | 25 | 15 | 7 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 26 | 15 | 5 | 1 |
| Aaron Nesmith S | 34 | 12 | 5 | 1 |
| Andrew Nembhard S | 24 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| Obi Toppin | 25 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Patrick Williams ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 10-foot step back jumpshot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Coby White
CHI
13%
2
Myles Turner
IND
12%
3
Patrick Williams
CHI
12%
4
DeMar DeRozan
CHI
11%
5
Tyrese Haliburton
IND
10%
6
Andre Drummond
CHI
10%
7
Aaron Nesmith
IND
8%
8
Andrew Nembhard
IND
8%
9
Alex Caruso
CHI
8%
10
Jalen Smith
IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
37%
Layup
15%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeMar DeRozan | CHI | 25.1 | 4.4 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Coby White | CHI | 24.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Tyrese Haliburton | IND | 22.8 | 3.8 | 14.0 |
| 4 | Myles Turner | IND | 17.8 | 6.8 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND | 15.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 6 | Patrick Williams | CHI | 14.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Aaron Nesmith | IND | 12.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 8 | Buddy Hield | IND | 12.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| 9 | Alex Caruso | CHI | 10.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Ayo Dosunmu | CHI | 10.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 11 | Obi Toppin | IND | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Isaiah Jackson | IND | 8.3 | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| 13 | Andre Drummond | CHI | 8.3 | 8.9 | 0.9 |
| 14 | Jalen Smith | IND | 8.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | 7.8 | 2.0 | 3.9 |
| 16 | Torrey Craig | CHI | 7.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 17 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 6.4 | 2.7 | 5.0 |
| 18 | Jevon Carter | CHI | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 19 | Jordan Nwora | IND | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Dalen Terry | CHI | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 21 | Jarace Walker | IND | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Ben Sheppard | IND | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Terry Taylor | CHI | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Julian Phillips | CHI | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 25 | James Johnson | IND | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.