NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
122–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET3036162614122
BOS2720352620128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 43 31 6 9
Jaden Ivey S 33 22 10 4
Bojan Bogdanovic S 44 17 12 6
Jalen Duren S 40 15 14 2
Alec Burks 30 12 2 1
Isaiah Livers 23 9 1 2
James Wiseman 13 6 5 1
Kevin Knox II S 18 6 2 0
Ausar Thompson 12 2 3 2
Killian Hayes 10 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 36 35 8 1
Jayson Tatum S 43 31 7 10
Derrick White S 38 23 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 44 12 9 3
Payton Pritchard 24 9 4 2
Al Horford S 37 8 5 3
Sam Hauser 18 5 3 1
Neemias Queta 20 5 2 0
Oshae Brissett 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
13%
3 Jrue Holiday BOS
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
6 Jalen Duren DET
11%
7 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
10%
8 Killian Hayes DET
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Kevin Knox II DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
39%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 7.7 5.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 4.8 6.7
3 Derrick White BOS 21.8 4.5 5.5
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.1 7.9 1.9
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.1 3.4 3.1
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.3 5.6 4.6
7 Jaden Ivey DET 15.5 4.5 3.6
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.0 10.6 2.5
9 Al Horford BOS 10.7 7.8 3.2
10 Killian Hayes DET 9.1 3.4 3.8
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.4 3.0 2.4
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.3 4.5 0.7
13 Ausar Thompson DET 7.5 4.3 1.5
14 James Wiseman DET 7.0 5.0 1.1
15 Alec Burks DET 6.6 2.1 0.9
16 Sam Hauser BOS 6.5 3.1 1.5
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.6 5.9 0.8
18 Kevin Knox II DET 5.3 2.2 0.8
19 Marcus Sasser DET 5.3 1.5 1.2
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.0 3.4 0.5
21 Isaiah Livers DET 3.7 1.9 0.9
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.6 2.0 0.6
23 Joe Harris DET 3.1 1.1 0.6
24 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.6 1.3 0.5
25 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 1.9 0.5
26 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.1 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.