NBA games

CLE @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
113–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27272831113
DAL39302120110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DAL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 28 29 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 35 24 23 6
Isaac Okoro S 39 22 3 1
Georges Niang 24 16 2 3
Craig Porter Jr. S 30 9 12 7
Max Strus S 34 8 5 6
Dean Wade S 32 3 8 0
Tristan Thompson 13 2 1 0
Emoni Bates 6 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 39 7 6
Seth Curry 28 19 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 14 4 1
Dante Exum S 33 13 4 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 36 12 5 1
Dereck Lively II S 25 4 4 1
Grant Williams 26 4 6 0
Dwight Powell 5 3 0 0
Josh Green 21 2 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
11%
2 Max Strus CLE
11%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Dante Exum DAL
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
7 Markieff Morris DAL
8%
8 Dean Wade CLE
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
15%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.4 7.6 9.5
2 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.5 4.1 2.0
3 Dante Exum DAL 17.0 4.4 4.1
4 Max Strus CLE 15.0 4.3 4.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.7 9.6 3.0
6 Caris LeVert CLE 13.0 3.4 3.6
7 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.9 8.3 1.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.7 3.7 1.4
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.3 3.3 2.1
10 Grant Williams DAL 9.3 3.8 1.8
11 Dean Wade CLE 9.1 5.2 1.1
12 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.0 3.0 3.8
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.5 2.2 1.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 7.0 2.7 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 1.4 1.0
16 Seth Curry DAL 6.0 2.2 1.2
17 Josh Green DAL 6.0 2.3 2.1
18 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 3.3 1.1
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.7 1.7 0.7
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.5 5.0 0.9
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.2 0.9
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.4 3.8 0.6
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.2 1.7 0.7
24 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.9 1.6 0.8
25 Emoni Bates CLE 2.6 1.3 0.5
26 Damian Jones CLE 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.