NBA games

NY @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
120–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25352931120
OKC38312436129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home OKC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 25 9 2
Jalen Brunson S 37 24 4 7
Immanuel Quickley 25 22 0 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 21 17 2 0
RJ Barrett S 30 14 4 4
Quentin Grimes 11 6 3 1
Taj Gibson 10 4 2 0
Josh Hart 34 4 7 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 37 4 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 33 36 0 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 36 7 8
Chet Holmgren S 30 22 5 1
Isaiah Joe 16 8 2 0
Josh Giddey S 29 7 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 12 5 0 2
Luguentz Dort S 27 5 2 2
Cason Wallace 22 4 1 0
Davis Bertans 1 3 1 0
Kenrich Williams 21 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 RJ Barrett NY
10%
6 Julius Randle NY
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.9 6.1 7.2
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 4.7 6.9
3 Julius Randle NY 27.1 8.3 4.5
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 22.0 7.7 2.6
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.6 4.3 4.1
6 RJ Barrett NY 18.0 5.1 2.3
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.9 4.2 1.9
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.3 5.8 4.6
9 Immanuel Quickley NY 12.0 2.5 2.1
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.7 9.7 2.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 9.2 3.0 2.2
12 Josh Hart NY 8.7 4.7 3.2
13 Evan Fournier NY 8.3 2.4 1.0
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.3 2.8 1.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.5 1.8
16 Quentin Grimes NY 6.2 1.9 1.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.8 1.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 2.4 0.9
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.7 1.3 2.9
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 2.3 1.0
21 Tre Mann OKC 4.5 1.8 1.5
22 Davis Bertans OKC 3.8 1.1 0.7
23 Taj Gibson NY 2.7 2.0 0.6
24 Miles McBride NY 2.4 0.7 0.6
25 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.7 0.5 0.5
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.6 0.9 0.4
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.