NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
129–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30433125129
HOU24312929113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 27 10 16
Eric Gordon S 39 27 0 1
Devin Booker S 36 20 4 7
Grayson Allen S 33 16 4 3
Udoka Azubuike 19 11 5 0
Saben Lee 12 9 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 14 8 10 0
Nassir Little 16 7 6 0
Chimezie Metu 16 4 2 0
Bol Bol 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 29 24 5 1
Jalen Green S 26 23 5 3
Aaron Holiday 24 13 2 2
Cam Whitmore 18 12 1 0
Fred VanVleet S 29 10 2 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 22 9 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate S 24 7 2 1
Tari Eason 25 6 3 2
Jock Landale 12 5 5 0
Jeff Green 7 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
8 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
10 Jalen Green HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.9 5.1 5.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.8 5.4 7.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.6 10.2 4.8
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.6 4.2 7.4
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 16.4 11.3 3.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 9.0 2.0
7 Jalen Green HOU 14.4 3.9 3.3
8 Grayson Allen PHX 14.3 4.1 2.5
9 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 8.0 1.8
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.9 2.7 2.2
11 Chimezie Metu PHX 7.6 4.0 0.9
12 Jeff Green HOU 7.4 2.4 1.1
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.1 2.0 1.1
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.6 3.9 3.0
15 Amen Thompson HOU 6.3 3.2 1.4
16 Josh Okogie PHX 6.2 3.8 1.4
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.9 2.1 0.6
18 Saben Lee PHX 5.7 2.0 2.1
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.5 4.3 0.7
20 Nassir Little PHX 5.1 2.6 0.9
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.7 2.9 0.9
22 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.6 3.7 0.4
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.8 0.9
24 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.4 2.2 0.6
25 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.3 1.5 0.5
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.2 1.2 0.3
27 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.0 0.9 0.4
28 Jock Landale HOU 1.9 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.