Wednesday, December 27, 2023

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final

144–122

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIL	32	34	34	44	144
BKN	31	28	33	30	122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIL) games this season

MIL away

home BKN

89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Giannis Antetokounmpo S	30	32	10	8	10/12	0/0	8
Khris Middleton S	32	27	3	10	11/18	3/7	5
Cameron Payne	23	18	4	6	6/9	5/8	24
Malik Beasley S	22	17	1	1	6/9	5/8	-7
Bobby Portis	31	14	6	4	6/9	2/3	20
Damian Lillard S	29	12	3	4	4/10	3/9	2
MarJon Beauchamp	21	11	5	2	4/6	2/3	21
Pat Connaughton	18	3	1	1	1/3	1/3	14
AJ Green	4	3	1	0	1/2	1/2	7
Robin Lopez	1	3	0	0	1/1	1/1	6

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Jalen Wilson	30	21	10	2	5/13	0/3	-14
Trendon Watford	28	17	5	4	6/9	0/1	-15
Dennis Smith Jr. S	30	14	7	8	7/17	0/4	-11
Noah Clowney	24	14	4	2	6/9	0/1	-19
Keon Johnson	21	12	1	1	3/8	2/4	-18
Day'Ron Sharpe S	16	12	4	4	5/6	1/1	2
Armoni Brooks	29	12	4	2	4/14	3/9	-12
Cam Thomas S	12	8	0	0	4/9	0/2	-1
Mikal Bridges S	12	6	3	1	3/4	0/1	-1
Royce O'Neale S	10	3	1	2	1/4	1/3	1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1

"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL

22%

2 Cam Thomas BKN

15%

3 Mikal Bridges BKN

15%

4 Khris Middleton MIL

14%

5 Damian Lillard MIL

12%

6 Brook Lopez MIL

12%

7 Malik Beasley MIL

8 Bobby Portis MIL

9 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL

10 MarJon Beauchamp MIL

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

Free Throw

90%

Jumper

Layup

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	31.1	11.2	7.1	32	10	8
2	Damian Lillard	MIL	26.5	4.6	7.5	12	3	4
3	Cam Thomas	BKN	23.4	3.1	3.4	8	0	0
4	Mikal Bridges	BKN	20.2	4.1	4.0	6	3	1
5	Khris Middleton	MIL	19.5	5.6	5.2	27	3	10
6	Bobby Portis	MIL	16.0	7.4	1.5	14	6	4
7	Brook Lopez	MIL	11.8	5.2	1.5	2	6	2
8	Malik Beasley	MIL	11.3	3.9	1.9	17	1	1
9	Dennis Smith Jr.	BKN	8.9	3.2	4.7	14	7	8
10	Day'Ron Sharpe	BKN	8.6	7.9	2.0	12	4	4
11	Royce O'Neale	BKN	8.2	3.9	3.0	3	1	2
12	Pat Connaughton	MIL	6.1	4.0	1.5	3	1	1
13	Cameron Payne	MIL	5.7	1.3	2.3	18	4	6
14	Keon Johnson	BKN	5.4	1.5	1.2	12	1	1
15	Andre Jackson Jr.	MIL	4.9	2.4	1.3	0	0	0
16	MarJon Beauchamp	MIL	4.8	2.4	0.9	11	5	2
17	Trendon Watford	BKN	4.7	2.7	1.4	17	5	4
18	Noah Clowney	BKN	4.6	3.3	0.8	14	4	2
19	Harry Giles III	BKN	4.4	2.2	0.4	1	4	0
20	Armoni Brooks	BKN	3.5	1.2	0.7	12	4	2
21	AJ Green	MIL	2.9	0.9	0.5	3	1	0
22	Jalen Wilson	BKN	2.8	1.0	0.6	21	10	2
23	Chris Livingston	MIL	2.5	0.9	0.3	2	1	1
24	Lindell Wigginton	MIL	2.3	1.3	1.1	—	—	—
25	Robin Lopez	MIL	1.7	1.1	0.4	3	0	0
26	Thanasis Antetokounmpo	MIL	1.5	0.9	0.3	0	0	2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.