NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
132–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31283835132
WSH25253121102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 29 26 6 2
Pascal Siakam S 32 22 6 11
Scottie Barnes S 33 20 12 8
Gary Trent Jr. S 26 12 2 4
Jakob Poeltl S 21 10 8 2
Dennis Schroder 28 9 4 10
Otto Porter Jr. 13 6 2 2
Malachi Flynn 5 6 1 0
Chris Boucher 12 6 4 0
Jalen McDaniels 19 6 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 30 14 4 7
Jordan Poole S 28 14 4 4
Corey Kispert 21 13 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 30 12 8 1
Deni Avdija S 24 12 2 1
Tyus Jones S 31 11 2 5
Bilal Coulibaly 25 10 4 2
Eugene Omoruyi 6 7 1 2
Landry Shamet 11 7 0 1
Ryan Rollins 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
16%
2 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Tyus Jones WSH
10%
5 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Pascal Siakam TOR
9%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
10 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 26.1 10.5 7.2
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.1 6.1 5.6
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.5 6.2 4.3
4 Jordan Poole WSH 21.7 2.7 4.6
5 Tyus Jones WSH 17.3 4.2 6.6
6 OG Anunoby TOR 16.1 4.2 4.1
7 Daniel Gafford WSH 14.4 8.6 2.2
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.0 2.6 6.4
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 2.6 1.7
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.3 4.5 2.2
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.1 2.8 2.3
12 Deni Avdija WSH 10.8 6.0 4.7
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.3 8.1 2.1
14 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.9 5.3 1.9
15 Landry Shamet WSH 7.5 1.5 1.6
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 5.8 2.7 1.1
17 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.4 2.4 3.4
18 Chris Boucher TOR 5.1 3.3 0.7
19 Mike Muscala WSH 4.1 2.5 0.9
20 Gradey Dick TOR 3.8 1.1 0.8
21 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.3 1.2 0.6
22 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.3 1.5 1.1
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.2 1.3 0.6
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 2.0 0.6
25 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.7 1.9 0.7
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.7 1.8 0.5
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.4 0.5
28 Johnny Davis WSH 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.